October 18, 2021

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans: 3 Best 'Monday Night Football' Prop Bets

Week 6 concludes tonight with a battle between our highest-rated team in our power rankings, the Buffalo Bills, and the AFC South division leader, Tennessee Titans

The Bills (4-1) come into tonight's game as a 6-point favorite and look to continue their excellent start to the season. While the Titans have struggled defensively and with injuries, Tennessee still has the Big Dog, Derrick Henry running wild. A win against the Bills tonight would put the Titans right back in the conversation for the AFC Championship and make them the clear favorites to win the division. 

As always, we will be giving out the three best props of the night as well as the best bet of the night. I locate the bets and you place the bets, it is that simple. When you do gamble tonight, please do so responsibly.

FanDuel: Derrick Henry OVER 13.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

We all know how valuable Henry is to the Titans' rushing attack but he has actually gotten very active in the passing game as well. For the season, he has 14 catches for 125 yards on 15 targets. Henry has tallied more than 13.5 receiving yards in every game except for last week's win over the Jaguars.

The Bills' defense is arguably the best in the NFL, allowing the fewest receiving yards to wide receivers in the entire NFL so the Titans will need to get creative in order to win. The Titans might be without A.J. Brown tonight, but even if he does play, it could be on a limited basis due to a hamstring injury and an illness. That could mean more work in the passing game for Henry.

Barstool: Zack Moss OVER 42.5 Rushing yards (-118)

Zack Moss has clearly taken over as the Bills' primary running back. His snap count has rapidly increased over the year, he is averaging 11.5 carries on the season, and he has gotten an average of 13 carries over the past three games.

The Bills offense has been very efficient on the ground as they are sixth in rushes per game (31.2), 10th in rush play percentage (45.1%), and 12th in yards per rush (4.5). The mix of a great offensive line and a solid group of running backs has given the Bills one of the most well-balanced offenses in the NFL.

There should be no problems for Moss tonight as the Titans' defense is atrocious against the run. They are allowing 112.8 yards per game, 4.5 yards per carry, and 1.4 opponents rushing touchdowns per game. If the Bills can grab a commanding lead in this one, Moss should see a lot of action. Even if the game is close, Moss should easily go over this total.

DraftKings: Dawson Knox Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+140)

In his four years at Ole Miss, Dawson Knox did not register a single touchdown. In his three seasons with the Bills, he has caught 10 touchdowns and has emerged as one of Josh Allen's favorite targets.

Knox has scored a touchdown in four straight games and has a catch percentage of 75% on the year, which is the highest on the team. He has the most touchdowns and targets inside the red zone and his playing time keeps increasing. The way the Bills offense is looking this year, especially with Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders drawing a lot of attention on the outside, Knox has been able to feast.

While Knox is due for a down game, we're not expecting that this week against an awful Titans defense. The game plan this year for the Bills has been solid, and they will stick to that. This means that Knox will get involved a lot tonight.

Bovada: Best Bet: OVER 53.5

With how potent the Buffalo's offense is, it is going to be hard for the Titans' defense to contain Allen and the Bills tonight. The Titans rank 21st in total yards allowed and they'll probably drop even further after tonight's tilt. 

However, the Titans are an extremely tough team to stop. Even though the Bills defense has been lights-out all year, the Titans still have one of the best running attacks in the NFL and while the passing numbers are not up to speed, Ryan Tannehill had his best game of the season last week against the Jaguars.

The Bills will win this game, but I am not comfortable laying the points against a solid Titans team.

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