December 8, 2021

6 Best NFL Regular Season Prop Bets Through Remainder of the 2021 Season

The 2021 NFL season is down to the final five games until the playoffs are here. The first 17-game regular season has certainly not disappointed fans. There's not a clear Super Bowl favorite, and the majority of the league is still alive in the playoff race.

Bettors can take advantage of NFL regular season props available for individual stat leaders. There's enough data to project trends effectively, and the standings will help give a clearer picture regarding who may sit in Week 17.

We've scoured the remaining schedules to see who has the best positioning to finish the year as a league leader.

That means it's profit time if our calculations come true. We have six best NFL regular season props ready for you to sink your units on.

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings.

Most Passing Yards: Matthew Stafford (+400)

Currently, Tom Brady leads the NFL in passing yards with 3,771 thanks to an also league-leading 508 attempts. It's insane the 44-year-old is so ahead of the pack in attempts, and it'd be foolish to bet the current favorite to finish the year first in passing yards.

We have several other options who have a great opportunity of dethroning Brady for the title.

Of Brady, Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr, and Justin Herbert, Stafford is my pick. Just 160 yards behind Brady and 52 yards behind Carr despite throwing the ball 70 times less than Brady and 13 times less than Carr.

Stafford has the most favorable remaining schedule and actual need to air the ball out. Key games against Arizona, Seattle, Minnesota, Baltimore, and San Francisco are either great matchups for the Rams' star or necessary wins for the Rams.

The Buccaneers will likely be in position to rest Brady or significantly cut his attempts soon as they run away with the NFC South. Carr and Herbert are in effective passing offenses, but also one-dimensional attacks that generally struggle going deep. Stafford has a bad rushing attack that forces him to throw, and a team that must push forward as they work to solidify their playoff spot.

Most Rushing TDs: Jonathan Taylor (-250)

I'd love to get more value by going with an underdog on this bet, but the field isn't favorable to do so. Colts star Jonathan Taylor is leading the NFL in rushing yards by 370 yards and four scores for good reason. The only way he doesn't finish as a league leader in touchdowns is an insane flurry from Joe Mixon or James Conner, or Taylor gets hurt.

Getting -250 odds right now is solid considering the decrease in emphasis league-wide on the run game. Mixon has the talent to overcome the lead, but not the opportunity since Cincinnati trusts Joe Burrow more than Indianapolis does Carson Wentz. And Conner is already playing with house money, benefitting and suffering from Kyler Murray's presence simultaneously.

Conner is gifted lighter boxes thanks to Murray, but as we saw even last week, Murray can easily pull the ball from the mesh point and rush for touchdowns himself.

Waiting one week for this line to move is the smartest move, though, as Taylor is on bye in Week 14 before finishing against New England, Arizona, Las Vegas, and Jacksonville. We could get closer to an even number.

Most Receiving Yards: Justin Jefferson (+450)

It might seem logical to double-dip on the Rams finishing the season with the leading passer and receiver, but I want to avoid going all-in here. For as dominant as Cooper Kupp is, and as impressive his 157-yard lead is, the possession receiver can be taken over. There's not a better candidate than Justin Jefferson.

The Vikings' star is a statistical All-Pro. With 1,209 yards on 78 receptions, he's averaging three yards per catch more than Kupp. Jefferson will benefit from the absence of teammate Adam Thielen's high ankle sprain limiting his availability, whereas Kupp may struggle without a healthy Robert Woods and Odell Beckham drawing attention away from him.

They're simply utilized in different ways and offer different skill sets. Kupp has -500 odds, which is high for a relatively narrow lead. I love getting Jefferson here, and there's not a clear major threat to overtake Jefferson's position as No. 2 barring injury.

Most Receiving TDs: Mike Evans (+550)

I'm also fading Kupp's odds to win the touchdown title as well. The odds are simply too tempting to go with Mike Evans, who has become a touchdown specialist since Tom Brady signed with the Buccaneers. In 28 games with Brady, Evans has totaled 23 touchdowns despite his yards-per-catch dropping significantly since the Jameis Winston-era.

I'm sure Evans isn't complaining too much. His 71 career touchdowns put him fourth amongst active players, and he's the youngest player amongst the top-10. Evans was built to dominate the red zone, and Brady is the perfect passer to accentuate his strengths.

Needing only one touchdown to tie Kupp, who is terrific but undoubtedly more reliant on scheme than Evans is, is worth the potential +300 return increase. That is especially the case when Tampa is slated to face the Jets in Week 17 and the Panthers twice when neither team has anything to play for. Evans' career splits against the Bills, Saints, and Panthers also points towards him totaling at least three more touchdowns before the year is up.

Most Sacks: T.J. Watt (+150)

Sacks can be a random statistic just like defensive interceptions are, but rarely do the best sack artists fail to lead the league. Undoubtedly, the four most impressive edge rushers are atop the sack ledger. And T.J. Watt, who should be the frontrunner for defensive player of the year, is currently king.

With 16 sacks in 10 games and a two-sack lead over Myles Garrett, it's insane we're getting this return right now. The only reason to not take Watt is that there are concerns he'd miss additional games. However, as Watt showed in his performance against Baltimore, which featured 3.5 sacks against Lamar Jackson, he's ready to finish the final five weeks with on a high note.

The strength of schedule is about even for Watt and Garrett. The jump in return for Watt and Garrett (+300) is simply not enough to persuade me away from the favorite.

Most Interceptions Thrown: Zach Wilson (+650)

My wildcard pick for most interceptions thrown is rookie Zach Wilson. The second overall pick has been miserable throughout 2021, amassing only 1,540 yards and six touchdowns in eight games. Four of his 11 interceptions came in Week 2 against New England, but if Wilson finishes the rest of the season, his interception rate (4.5%) puts him in line to lead the league.

His competition is an unsuspecting group. Normally sure-decision makers Ryan Tannehill and Lamar Jackson are tied for second in picks, and second-year passer Joe Burrow is now first after four multi-interception games. Wilson and Taylor Heinicke stand out amongst the competition as great values because they're far from proven entities. Burrow is the clubhouse leader because he has to throw so often, but Wilson's potential return at +650 can look like a major bargain within a week or two of continued poor play.

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