The NFL offseason offers a prime opportunity to lock in prop bets. Oddsmakers can be overly optimistic when projecting into the season. Other times, they're wisely taking advantage of an overzealous public.
We especially see discrepancies in new acquisitions and coaching hires. Projecting production when there's a new system or talent in a fresh situation is difficult. Some guys walk in and dominate while others take time to adjust.
We're focusing on the six best over/under quarterback passing yard prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook. They have lines available for every starting quarterback so make sure you lay money on your favorites.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
The lovefest for Matthew Stafford has gotten insane. A perennially unimpactful quarterback for the mediocre Lions for the last decade, Stafford has suddenly made a ton of fans. ESPN ranked him as the fourth-best passer in a recent piece that polled executives, players, and coaches. And head coach Sean McVay can't shut up about how excited he is to have Stafford replace Jared Goff.
The strong-armed QB has a ton of pressure on him. He's capable of some terrific throws but also struggled to win inside clean pockets. His accuracy has always troubled him and it's unlikely the 33-year-old suddenly develops.
McVay's system will absolutely help his efficiency numbers. But Jared Goff threw for fewer than 4,000 yards last year in 15 games. This offense will continue to cater to a talented backfield and suffocating defense instead of chunk passing yards.
The pick: Under 4700.5 passing yards (-118)
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Is it time to start betting against Russell Wilson? The 32-year-old is one of the most talented passers in the NFL and his ability to create big plays rivals anyone.
Wilson has continually shown he wears down as seasons continue, but Pete Carroll finally let Wilson throw more last year. His interception rate spiked to 2.3 percent, but so did his yards, completion rate and touchdown rate. It paid off to let Russ cook.
The pick: Over 4250.5 passing yards (-112)
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
I don't want to overvalue Jared Goff's down season in 2020 in either his projection or Stafford's. However, Goff fell out of favor in Los Angeles because of his limitations and defenses keyed in on him. His situation in Detroit is significantly worse.
His best receivers are nowhere near the caliber of the Rams', and Anthony Lynn is a good play-caller but not on McVay's level. Goff needs to experience serious personal growth to make have a successful stint in the Motor City.
Detroit would be wise to rely on their running game as often as they can. The defense and talented backs can be a better identity for this rebuilding team. Allowing Goff to air the ball out to oft-injured receivers and unproven youngsters would be a reckless recipe to lose a ton of games.
The pick: Under 4050.5 passing yards (-124)
Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts
This line is hard to understand. The ancient, immobile Philip Rivers threw for more than 4,100 yards in his final season. For as bad as Wentz was in 2020, Frank Reich can ask Wentz to do the minimum to get relatively close to this yardage total.
The Colts have a solid set of receivers when healthy. A full season of Parris Campbell, Michael Pittman Jr., T.Y. Hilton, and Jack Doyle can be explosive. The unit can promote a dominating run game and effective passing attack.
Wentz must average just 221 yards per game to eclipse his total. Barring a benching for Jacob Eason, he'll rival his career average of 247 yards per game. This is an easy over.
The pick: Over 3750.5 passing yards(-112)
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
The hype around Trevor Lawrence and Urban Meyer, in my opinion, is warranted. Lawrence is a dynamic talent who will help Jacksonville reach new heights in time. And Meyer will bring a lot of good fundamentals to this franchise.
One of his best hires was Darrell Bevell as the franchise's offensive coordinator. The Jags have a plethora of playmakers who can be utilized in a variety of roles. Both Bevell and Meyer have a history of maximizing versatile ball-carriers.
Lawrence will produce well, but the running game will be a priority regardless of his own talent. Easing him into the spotlight can protect his health as the franchise builds towards the prime of his career.
The pick: Under 4150.5 passing yards (-112)
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
The most ridiculous line of all is Patrick Mahomes'. He's the lone player with a total of over 4,900 passing yards. This is a preposterous line even if Mahomes could've eclipsed it last year had he played in the Chiefs' final regular season game.
Mahomes attempted 588 passes largely out of necessity. The rash of injuries to the offensive line and running back spots left them increasingly dependent on Mahomes. This offseason showed they're wanting change.
Investments into five new starting linemen is a sign of things to come. The Chiefs will run more and look to keep Mahomes healthy. That means his positioning among the top yard producers will drop.
The pick: Under 5050.5 passing yards (-118)
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