The air is crisp, the leaves are changing, and you've dusted off your favorite sweatshirts. That's right: It is officially football weather. What better way to celebrate the best season of the year than with some NFL Week 3 picks?
The board is looking great this weekend and I intend to not lose a single bet. Here's who we're taking.
*All lines are courtesy of the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Cardinals -7 at Jaguars
The Urban Meyer era has been hilariously bad in Jacksonville as they're already 0-2 ATS.
Even a poor performance from the Cardinals won't matter. The Jaguars are an automatic fade until they can prove otherwise.
Saints at Patriots: Under 42.5
Two slow, methodical offenses meeting up is the perfect recipe for the under.
The Saints are dead-last in the NFL in total plays run per game while the Patriots rank 18th in that same category. Both teams are towards the bottom in total offense and they both have top-10 defenses.
The Patriots have given up just 23 points this season and the Saints are going up against a rookie quarterback who is still learning the game. Mac Jones has been the best rookie, but he also has some ugly-looking stat lines.
The game plan for both teams is simple: hold onto the ball. If both teams do that, the under is the play.
Dolphins at Raiders -4.5
While Tagovailoa hasn't set the world on fire so far, he's still a better option than the stuck-in-stone Jacoby Brissett. Even with a full week of practice with the first team, he is not good enough to beat the Raiders.
Las Vegas surprisingly has the No. 1 passing offense in the NFL with 391 yards per game, and they are the seventh-highest-scoring team in the NFL at 29.5 points per game. The Dolphins' defense this season has been uncharacteristically bad.
Derek Carr has been too good against two good defenses this season for me to pick against him facing a pretty average defense.
Bears at Browns: Under 45.5
The Browns will be without Jarvis Landry due to an MCL sprain, and the status of Odell Beckham Jr. is still in the air, so you know what that means. This game is going to be dominated by Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Even with the Bears allowing a pedestrian 71 yards rushing per game, they have not seen a running attack or an offensive line like this the Browns'.
The combination of Fields' inexperience and the Browns running attack will keep this game below the total.
Falcons at Giants -3
Atlanta has looked like one of the worst teams in the league through two weeks. The Falcons are 30th in total scoring, 24th in passing yards and rushing yards, and 29th in yards per play. The defense has been just as bad. Matt Ryan looks like he spent the offseason hanging out with Ben Roethlisberger.
With over 10 days off, this should be a good bounce-back game for Saquon Barkley to shake off the haters and show that he's still one of the most dynamic running backs in the league. With Danny Dimes playing better and the re-emergence of Sterling Shepard, the G-Men should be able to cover the three-point spread at home.
If not, head coach Joe Judge's seat will get a lot warmer.
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