June 2, 2022
BY Lance Cartelli

2022 NFL Odds: NFC Win Totals To Bet On

The NFL offseason is in a lull. 

With team rosters nearly fully formed and free agency all but over, that gives us a perfect opportunity to start looking toward the future. More specifically, next season's win totals.  

Here's who I think will hit the over or under on their win totals in 2022. 

NFC North

Detroit Lions: 6.5 (Under)

The Lions won just three games last season, which makes their win total of 6.5 somewhat surprising. But if you take a gander at the roster, you can see why. 

The Lions have some real talent on both sides of the ball, especially on the offensive and defensive lines. Unfortunately, they still have Jared Goff under center. If the Lions double their win total from a year ago, that’s still a huge improvement. I just can’t see them winning seven games this year. 

Minnesota Vikings: 9 (Under)

The Vikings are a tough team to read. The roster is nearly identical to last year’s even though they brought in a new head coach and general manager. 

The offense looks like it should be the strength of the team with three dangerous wide receivers and the return of Irv Smith Jr. 

The Vikes won eight games last season, will a coaching change be the difference? It’s not something I’m comfortable betting on. 

Chicago Bears: 6.5 (Under) 

This is my favorite under on the board. 

The Bears did what feels like the bare minimum to upgrade the talent for Justin Fields. Adding Byron Pringle and 25-year-old Velus Jones Jr. isn’t really setting their second-year starter up for success. 

Chicago also delved deeper into rebuild mode after shipping Khalil Mack to the Chargers. 

The only way this team wins seven or more games is if Fields takes a huge step in Year 2.  

Green Bay Packers: 11 (Over)

The Packers are another team that didn’t really help out their quarterback too much this offseason. Green Bay dealt Davante Adams to the Raiders and lost Marques Valdez-Scantling while adding a pair of non-first-round rookies. 

Luckily for them, they have Aaron Rodgers. The Packers offense might not be as prolific, but they won’t be bad with the back-to-back MVP under center.  

I thought about pushing here at 11 wins, but with the lack of competition in the division and the Packers’ improved defense, Green Bay should be able to win at least 12 games in the NFC. 

NFC East

New York Giants: 7 (Under)

The Giants had one of the better offseasons. They replaced Joe Judge and Dave Gettleman at head coach and general manager, respectively, which already makes them a winner in my book. They added arguably the two best talents in the NFL draft and really solidified their offensive line. But they are in the first year of a rebuild and I think that’ll take time, even if the G-Men are on the right track. 

Philadelphia Eagles: 9.5 (Over)

This is one of my favorite lines in the NFC. The Eagles have been a big winner this offseason, and as long as Jalen Hurts doesn’t completely implode then Philadelphia should absolutely hit double-digit wins. 

The Eagles have put together one of the stronger rosters in the NFL. Their only major hole is at safety, as long as you don’t think Hurts is a liability. 

The Eagles should not only win 10 games, but they should also win the NFC East. 

Washington Commanders: 8 (Push)

Washington won seven games last season with some of the worst QB play in the league. Now DraftKings has their win total at one game above that. Is Carson Wentz worth one win? I believe so. 

The NFC East might be improved, especially with the emergence of the Eagles, but I still like the Commanders’ roster. They should be able to get to eight wins. 

Dallas Cowboys: 10 (Under)

While the Eagles have been the darling of the offseason, it’s been pretty much the opposite for the Cowboys. The reigning NFC East champs lost a fair amount of talent this offseason, including Amari Cooper, La’El Collins and Randy Gregory. 

Dallas’ offensive line and weapons in the passing game are a legit question mark for the first time in years, too. I still think the Cowboys are a playoff contender, but I think Dallas profiles more as a nine-win team. 

NFC South

New Orleans Saints: 8 (Over)

Here’s another juicy win total I really like. 

The Saints might’ve lost head coach Sean Payton and some talent in a salary-cup crunch, but New Orleans’ roster is still playoff-worthy which makes their win total way too low. 

There are plenty of question marks in the Big Easy — Will Jameis Winston be healthy? Is Alvin Kamara going to get suspended? What’s up with Michael Thomas? And how much will New Orleans miss Terron Armstead? — but the Saints are perpetually underrated. In a down NFC South, New Orleans remains the second-best team in the division. 

Carolina Panthers: 6 (Under)

While Carolina has certainly added talent since last season, the Panthers’ roster just isn’t ready to compete. 

Of course, no team with Sam Darnold slated to be the starting QB should fool themselves into thinking they are close to playoff contention. 

This feels like a lame-duck year for the Panthers, so expect to see plenty of Matt Corral or potentially Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo for Carolina until they clean house. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 11.5 (Over)

The Buccaneers have the highest projected win total in the NFC, and I still think Tampa Bay will hit the over. 

With Tom Brady back, the Bucs roster is the class of the NFC and Super Bowl contenders once again. 

Sure, Tampa will miss Chris Godwin early in the season, but the addition of Russell Gage should soften the blow. I expect the Bucs to win at least 13 games unless Brady is finally defeated by Father Time. 

Atlanta Falcons: 5 (Under)

The Falcons somehow won seven games a year ago. Don’t expect Atlanta to duplicate that kind of success this season. Despite adding Drake London to the mix, the Falcons still have one of the worst offensive skill groups in the league. In fact, Atlanta probably has a bottom-three roster in terms of talent in the NFL. 

Adding Marcus Mariota and third-rounder Desmond Ridder won’t elevate this team. They’re in full rebuild mode for another year. 

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks: 5.5 (Over)

Here’s another over that I love. 

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know. The Seahawks traded Russell Wilson to the Broncos and are replacing him with either Geno Smith or Drew Lock. That’s not ideal. But the rest of Seattle’s roster isn’t half bad. 

The defense could be pretty good if their transition to the 3-4 works out well. While I don’t expect the Seahawks to make the playoffs, they should win six to seven games this year. 

Arizona Cardinals: 8.5 (Under)

It’s been a rough offseason for the Cardinals. 

Kyler Murray had his little Instagram drama, DeAndre Hopkins is suspended for the first six games, Chandler Jones is gone and, sadly, Jeff Gladney died recently in a car accident. 

The offense should still be explosive, but Arizona – in a tough division — has way too many holes to compete unless Murray takes his game to a new level.  

Los Angeles Rams: 10.5 (Over)

The defending Super Bowl champs are, like usual, extremely top-heavy. That’s what happens when you adopt the “Fuck Them Picks” mentality. And it paid off for Los Angeles last season. 

It’s certainly tempting to take the under because of how long of a season they had last year and their top-heaviness, but I can’t do it. I think Matthew Stafford should be even better this year, as long as the offensive line does its job. That should get the Rams to at least 11 wins. 

San Francisco 49ers: 10 (Push)

Once again, the 49ers have a championship-caliber roster, but it’ll all come down to the quarterback. 

In the Jimmy G era, that didn’t work out so well. But that era is dead, it’s now time for Trey Lance to prove that he can take the 49ers to the next level. That’ll be tough in his first season as starter. Lance will get top-notch coaching, but he is incredibly raw and that will equal some growing pains this season. 

The 49ers roster is good enough to overcome some of that which is why I think they should win at least 10 games this season. 

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