2022 NFL Odds: AFC Win Totals You Need to Bet On
The NFL offseason is in a lull.
With team rosters nearly fully formed and free agency all but over, that gives us a perfect opportunity to start looking toward the future. More specifically, next season's win totals.
Let’s go through 15 of the 16 AFC teams, with the Browns off the board on DraftKings Sportsbook due to the uncertainty surrounding Deshaun Watson.
New York Jets: 5.5 (Over)
They’ve improved a ton this offseason, especially on offense. It’s not a super tough division, either. But this comes down to Zach Wilson’s progress. I think there’s enough talent and Robert Saleh’s a good coach so I can see them winning six or seven games this season.
Buffalo Bills: 11.5 (Over)
The Bills have the highest win total on DK, and I still think they hit the over. They have the best roster in the NFL, in my opinion, and I think Josh Allen still has a leap or two left in his development. If Buffalo’s pass rush improves then they’ll hit this easily.
New England Patriots: 8.5 (Over)
It’s been a weird offseason for the Pats. They didn’t improve a ton and Bill Belichick’s coaching staff is rather odd, with no offensive coordinator in place yet. But I think Mac Jones will continue to play better and New England has a chance to have a really good offense. The defense has a lot of holes, but Belichick should be able to coach his squad to at least nine wins.
Miami Dolphins: 9 (Under)
I really like what the Dolphins did this offseason. They’ve really leveled up the entire roster and have a new, exciting coach in Mike McDaniel in place, but I still think nine wins is a little high for Miami. There should be some growing pains with the new coaching staff and the offensive line is still a problem.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 7.5 (Over)
I know, I know. The Steelers will start either first-rounder Kenny Pickett or draft bust Mitch Trubisky, which isn’t ideal for competing, but they won nine games with the corpse of Big Ben. Pickett or Trubisky will be an upgrade. Not to mention, Mike Tomlin doesn’t have losing seasons. This is one of my favorite overs on the slate.
Cincinnati Bengals: 10 (Push)
This is a tough one so I’m going with the push here. The Bengals certainly got better this offseason, but a Super Bowl hangover is a real possibility for Cincinnati. The AFC North should be better so while I think the Bengals are still a playoff team, I just don’t see them winning 11-plus games this year.
Baltimore Ravens: 9.5 (Over)
Even though the Ravens downgraded on offense with the loss of Marquise Brown, Baltimore’s season will depend on Lamar Jackson. As long as Jackson stays healthy, this team should be a lock for double-digit wins.
Houston Texans: 4.5 (Under)
The Texans finally feel like they’re making progress in the rebuild, but Houston still has a bottom-three roster. If Davis Mills impresses then they could surpass five wins, but I’m not betting on it.
Indianapolis Colts: 9.5 (Over)
The Colts' upgrade from Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan is the difference here. Matty Ice’s still got it and he’ll have an above average offensive line blocking for him and some decent weapons on offense. That’s a recipe for success in a winnable division.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 6 (Under)
If the Jaguars hit this total then they’d double their wins from a year ago. While I think Jacksonville has certainly improved, I don’t think they’re going to double their wins from a year ago. I see them winning five games at most unless Trevor Lawrence breaks out in a big way.
Tennessee Titans: 9 (Push)
The Titans won 12 games last season, but they seem like the AFC team that could have the biggest drop-off in 2022. The loss of A.J. Brown could really hurt them on offense, especially if Derrick Henry doesn’t return to his elite form. I still think this coaching staff is one of the best in the league and that should get them to nine wins, so give me the push.
Denver Broncos: 10 (Push)
The Broncos finished with seven wins last year. Is Russell Wilson – among other additions – worth three wins? I think so. But I certainly wouldn’t be this one. With a new coaching staff and Wilson not exactly lighting it up last year, I’d be cautious about this one. The AFC West is probably the hardest division in the NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs: 10.5 (Over)
The Chiefs roster has plenty of holes. Kansas City has no clear-cut replacement for Tyreek Hill while the defense – especially the pass rushers – is a major question mark. That being said, the Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes and one of the best offensive lines in the league. They should be able to hit at least 11 wins.
Los Angeles Chargers: 10 (Over)
The Bolts have had one of the best offseasons in the league and Justin Herbert should continue to get better and better. He’s got a real shot at winning MVP this year even if he doesn’t take a leap. The defense should be much improved, too. I like the Chargers to win at least 11 games and to potentially win the AFC West.
Las Vegas Raiders: 8.5 (Under)
The poor Raiders are between a rock and a hard place. They re-signed Derek Carr this offseason and acquired Davante Adams, among other additions, but they still don’t have the roster to compete with the heavyweights in the AFC West. That, along with a new coaching staff and front-office drama, puts this team at a severe disadvantage. I think they’ll win eight games, but more than that is a stretch.
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