The NFL rookie prop bet lines are available now. This is an exciting time for degenerates who have studied the 2021 NFL Draft class and have a great handle on rookie expectations and roles.
The reality is that most rookies take time to adjust to the NFL. A successful first season doesn't always result in an All-Pro bid. We want to see solid production to go with visual progression.
The prop bets have some unrealistic and realistic lines hidden within them. We've scoured the offensive lines at PointsBet and come up with the four surest props we could find. Let's break it all down.
Zach Wilson: 3,800.5 Passing Yards
The expectations that Zach Wilson will throw for at least the fifth-most passing yards ever for a rookie is completely unreasonable. Though Wilson is clearly talented, he's a one-year wonder from BYU going to a completely rebuilt team. The Jets will need time to find their identity.
That identity will likely feature a strong running game and predetermined passing reads. Wilson is exciting, but has little in common with the rookie passing yard leaders who eclipsed the 3,800 passing yard mark. Hitting such a milestone takes great pocket ability and Wilson hasn't found that trait yet.
Instead, Wilson will rely on rollouts and broken structure plays. He'll be exciting but not historically productive. The Jets don't have a proven situation to simply insert a raw rookie and expect that from him.
Pick: Under 3800.5 passing yards (-115)
Kyle Pitts: 850.5 Receiving Yards
Pitts is a phenomenal talent who can in many ways replicate what Waller does. He's able to be an outside receiver or slot tight end. He'll be a complete mismatch in every one-on-one battle he sees.
But the third overall pick faces a tough uphill battle in Atlanta. Even if Julio Jones is traded, the Falcons' offense features talented target hogs in Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage. New head coach Arthur Smith will be pressed to create a third near-1,000-yard receiver as he tries to bring balance to Atlanta.
Pick: Under 850.5 receiving yards (-115)
DeVonta Smith: 750.5 Receiving Yards
The oddsmakers are really selling the Eagles' passing game short. Some of that is fair. It's highly questionable as to what new coach Nick Sirianni will bring to Philadelphia and how Jalen Hurts will develop as a passer.
However, the opportunities for 2021 first-round pick DeVonta Smith will be bountiful. Last year's top selection Jalen Reagor looked like a rotational receiver as a rookie and would need a huge improvement to be more functional. Smith will outplay him with ease and earn WR1 targets.
Who else is around to usurp Smith's targets? Zach Ertz is likely to be traded after June 1. Dallas Goedert is a nice pass-catcher but not a big threat. Travis Fulgham is just an ancillary piece.
If Smith can't hit the over with this opportunity, he's likely to be a bust or late bloomer. I'll hammer the over here.
Pick: Over 750.5 receiving yards (-115)
Najee Harris: 900.5 Rushing Yards
The bar for rushing yards was set quite low for the former Alabama star. The Steelers' anemic run game in 2020 was partially due to a declining offensive line but also dealt with an uninspiring ballcarrier in James Conner. Harris is a massive upgrade over the plodder.
The Steelers must rely on Najee Harris and the ground game more than they have without Le'Veon Bell. Their offensive line is suspect, and should've been a bigger focus for the front office this offseason. But here we are, and Harris must overcome a below-average unit.
I don't expect an overly efficient year from Harris because the line is lacking individual talent. However, he'll get his own numbers through volume and making the most out of his touches. He should reach 1,000 rushing yards even if it takes 250 carries to get there.
Pick: Over 900.5 rushing yards (-150)
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