NFL
September 8, 2021

2021 NFL Win Totals: NFC Betting Guide

In my previous article, I went over every AFC team's win totals for the season and gave out my predictions.

Well, guess what? I will be doing the same for the NFC.

The NFL season is practically here and it is your last chance to get in any last-minute futures bets. So let's take a look at some more win totals for the 2021 season, this time in the NFC.

Once again, please keep in mind that we are dealing with a 17-game season in 2021. Also, all odds will be from the Fanduel Sportsbook. If you use another book, please double-check the numbers.

NFC East

Washington Football Team

Win Total: 8.5

Over (-115)

Under (-105)

The defense is going to be the reason that the Washington Football Team has a high ceiling. With a frontline of Chase Young, Montez Sweat, and Jonathan Allen, WFT will always be able to get to the quarterback and wreak havoc on any offense. Combine that with a solid defensive backfield and the Football Team's defense will always keep them in games.

While it is fun to watch Ryan Fitzpatrick accidentally win a few games every year, he is not a real viable option for a playoff team. Then again, neither was Alex Smith (at that stage in his career) or Dwayne Haskins.

Luckily for Fitzpatrick, he will have a skill room that includes Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Antonio Gibson, and Logan Thomas. That amount of skill and a good offensive line gives any quarterback the tools for success.

Prediction: Over 8.5 (-115)

Dallas Cowboys

Win Total: 9.5

Over (+115)

Under (-130)

Even with the return of Dak Prescott and a lot of optimism around this offense, the Cowboys just don't have a good enough team this season.

While the selection of Micah Parsons was among the best in the draft, the secondary remains quite terrible. The 'Boys will have to rely on an offense that includes an overworked Ezekiel Elliot and a declining offensive line.

Prediction: Under 9.5 (-130)

Philadelphia Eagles

Win Total: 6.5

Over (-150)

Under (+125)

The Eagles are a weird team, but not weird enough for me to even think about the over. There is a path to shocking some teams this season, but that is going to come down to the play of second-year quarterback Jalen Hurts. If you think that Hurts will improve over his 52 percent completion percentage and his QBR of 41.0 from last year then more power to you.

However, let's be real here. Unless we see a Lamar Jackson-type of improvement out of Hurts, this team does not have much promise in 2021. While the Eagles are on the right track after drafting 2020 Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, they are one thing going wrong away from a complete collapse this season.

Prediction: Under 6.5 (+125)

New York Giants

Win Total: 7

Over (-130)

Under(+110)

If all the stars align for the Giants' offense, New York will be a chore to play against. With the return of Saquon Barkley and the additions of Kadarius Toney and Kenny Golladay, the Giants have some serious weapons.

The problem is Daniel Jones has been average and the Giants did nothing to address an offensive line that finished among the bottom of the league in most categories. That does not help Jones as he is the NFL leader in fumbles lost over the past two seasons.

The defense will keep them in games and because they play in the NFC East, they have a real chance at going on a run. However, an average quarterback and a really bad offensive line rarely have positive results. 

Prediction: Under 7 (+110)

NFC North

Green Bay Packers

Win Total: 10.5

Over (-130)

Under(+110)

The Packers are not necessarily an elite team, but they have a lot of elite players.

After rumors of trade requests, retirement, and "Jeopardy!" hosting, future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers will be back to lead a team that came one win shy of a Super Bowl appearance for the second straight season. Most of the team's success comes from Rodgers, Davante Adams, and David Bakhtiari all being elite offensive players. While Backtiari will start the season on the PUP list, the Packers should not stumble too bad without him, even with the loss of long-time center Corey Linsley.

With all of that talent on offense, the defense just needs to be above average for the Packers to be successful. With Jaire Alexander in the secondary, they have a good shot at doing just that.

Prediction: Over 10.5 (-130)

Chicago Bears

Win Total: 7.5

Over (+100)

Under (-120)

Chicago's campaign will start whenever they stop pretending that they need to play Andy Dalton at quarterback. 

The Bears are trotting out Dalton in Week 1 against the Ram, perhaps to protect Justin Fields from a dangerous defensive line. Fields is clearly a special talent that should be playing Sunday night. Even with that, the Bears won eight games with a revolving door of Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles at quarterback last season. This is mainly due to a great front-seven led by Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks.

The Bears are good enough to once again reach eight wins, but that may depend on how long Dalton is under center. For that reason, I advise you to stay away from this number.

Prediction: Stay away (lean over 7.5)

Minnesota Vikings

Win Total: 8.5

Over (-160)

Under (+135)

Kirk Cousins is the perfect quarterback to keep a good team in playoff contention. The problem that the Vikings are facing is that he is being paid like a top-tier quarterback. Even with that, the Vikings are always a threat to surprise some people.

With a fresh defensive front that includes Danielle Hunter and Michael Pierce, both of whom did not play last year due to injuries and COVID. They also added Dalvin Tomlinson and Sheldon Richardson for some much-needed depth upfront.

While this offense has some serious weapons in Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, they just do not scream "contender" to me. That is why I will advise you to stay away from this number.

Prediction: Stay away (lean under 8.5)

Detriot Lions

Win Total: 5

Over (+100)

Under (-120)

I am so conflicted with this team.

On one hand, I really like new head coach Dan Campbell's old-school style. The players seem like they love him and he proved through the draft that he is willing to build a team rather than chase talent when he selected top-rated tackle Penei Sewell.

However, there really is not a lot of top-tier talent on this team. With former No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff now taking the snaps they at least have a quarterback that started a Super Bowl. Other than that, and players like D'Andre Swift, Jeff Okudah, and possibly T.J. Hockenson, the Lions really have nothing going for them.

With an experienced quarterback and some young talent, I will stay away from this number.

Prediction: Stay away (lean under 5)

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Win Total: 11.5

Over (-150)

Under (+125)

The Super Bowl champions are returning all 22 of their starters from the 2020 season. I honestly could end my breakdown right there. However, there is a good chance that they regress this season. Then again, Tom Brady is on track to win every Super Bowl for the rest of time, so who really knows.

At the end of the day, this team is loaded at every position and is good at everything. With the Saints' regression and the uncertainty of the rest of the division, the Buccaneers should hit the total pretty easily.

Prediction: Over 11.5 (-150)

New Orleans Saints

Win Total: 9

Over (+125)

Under (-145)

It is not like the Saints are going to be an awful team under Jameis Winston, but he is no Drew Brees. Even the corpse of Brees last season was good enough to get this team to the divisional round of the playoffs.

Winston has not played meaningful football in over two years, and he threw 30 interceptions that season. Now, reports are saying that his Lasik eye surgery could help be the rebirth of his career, but let's wait and see.

This team is very talented, but they will only go as far as Winston will take them, and he needs to prove he is worth it before I bet on him.

Prediction: Under 9 (-145)

Carolina Panthers

Win Total: 7.5

Over (-105)

Under (-115)

Even though the Panthers have the 15th-easiest schedule this season and they were 3-8 in one-score games last year, I am still low on them. Outside of Christian McCaffrey, there is no juice on this team. Even with Sam Darnold now getting a fresh start in Carolina, this team doesn't excite me.

While I think that it will benefit Darnold to play with his favorite target as a Jet, Robby Anderson, is that really enough to make this team take off? Probably not.

The defense is fine, the offense is fine, the Panthers are just a fine football team. Unfortunately, fine football teams don't win a lot of games. 

Prediction: Under 7.5 (-115)

Atlanta Falcons

Win Total: 7.5

Over (-120)

Under (+100)

Extremely easy under here, especially considering it is at even value. While they will play with the 10th-easiest schedule this season, the Julio Jones trade signals that the Falcons are a team starting the rebuild process. 

New head coach Arthur Smith will have some tools to work with. With Matt Ryan still taking snaps and playmakers like Calvin Ridley and first-round selection Kyle Pitts, there is some talent on this offense.

A very underwhelming defensive secondary and pass rush will keep this team from winning a lot of games. While the offense is talented and can score, they are not talented enough to make up for a below-average defense.

Prediction: Under 7.5 (+100)

NFC West

Los Angeles Rams

Win Total: 10.5

Over (+120)

Under(-140)

At +120, this is probably the best value of any win total for any team in the NFL.

While Goff was able to lead this team to a Super Bowl appearance in 2018, it was clear that this team needed an upgrade at quarterback to take the final step. The trade for Matthew Stafford allows the Rams to make that leap.

While they lost defensive coordinator Brandon Staley to the Chargers, the likes of Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey will keep this defense afloat. The Rams also lost both John Johnson III and Troy Hill to the Browns, but second-year safety Jordan Fuller proved last season that he was a late-round steal and should step into a bigger role in 2021. 

Prediction: Over 10.5 (+120)

Seattle Seahawks

Win Total: 10

Over (-110)

Under(-110)

If Russell Wilson is taking the snaps, the Seahawks have the chance to be really good. So there is no reason for me to believe that Seattle will not be competitive this season.

The Seahawks led the league in one-score games won with seven. Now, you may say that is just a testament to the winning culture that started with Wilson, or you might say they are extremely lucky.

The 'Hawks have a good offense and defense, so they should be beating teams by a lot more than they are. For that reason, I am staying away.

Prediction: Stay away (Lean over 10)

San Francisco 49ers:

Win Total: 10.5

Over (+100)

Under(-120)

While injuries killed any chance for this team to return to the Super Bowl in 2020, the 49ers are still acting like a potential Super Bowl contender despite eventually playing a rookie quarterback. 

The Niners' QB battle isn't quite like the Bears' as Jimmy Garoppolo is a much better option than Dalton, but both QB battles are just a matter of time. Lance will be starting this season, which makes the 49ers a tricky betting proposition. 

The front-seven should once again be dominant, and the offensive line got a big boost when Trent Williams resigned to a big deal. However, this is such a tough division and with uncertainty around who will be taking the snaps, I am going with the under.

Prediction: Under 10.5

Arizona Cardinals

Win Total: 8.5

Over (+105)

Under(-125)

There is absolutely no reason for this team to not be awesome. However, Kliff Kingsbury thrives in making good teams average.

Kyler Murray has one of the more talented and deep receiver rooms in the NFL. DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green and rookie Rondale Moore make up a very talented group. While losing the veteran leadership of Larry Fitzgerald hurts, the Cards have plenty of experience and leadership. 

The addition of J.J. Watt to play alongside Chandler Jones will make up one of the best pass-rushing duos in the league. Combine that with a talented secondary, and you have a pretty good defense.

This team should win more games than they do. However, I am not sure if Kingsbury has done enough to improve. I am staying away until they prove to be a contender.

Prediction: Stay away (lean under 8.5)

Photo: Getty Images