NCAAF
October 28, 2021

Stay Far Away From Caleb Williams' Heisman Trophy Award Odds

What exactly is the Heisman Trophy? Is it the award that the best player in college football receives, or is it a narrative-driven popularity contest? Well, according to the latest betting odds from the DraftKings Sportsbook, new Oklahoma quarterback Caleb Williams, who has started two games this season, has the fifth-best odds to take home the Heisman in 2021 (+1500).

By definition, the Heisman is awarded to the most outstanding college football player in the FBS. If we look at the stats, Williams is nowhere close to any of the other quarterbacks in the running or even any other player that you can bet on. There is no doubt in my mind that Williams has the potential to leave Oklahoma with at least one Heisman Trophy. However, he will not win this season and you should avoid putting a future on him at all costs.

The Legend Is Born

Oklahoma came into the season with national championship aspirations thanks to quarterback Spencer Rattler's inspiring end of the 2020 season. Rattler finished 2020 completing 67.5% of his passes for 3031 yards and 28 touchdowns. After a rough start to the season, Rattler settled in and led the Sooners to a Big 12 championship and a Sugar Bowl victory over Florida.

Rattler entered 2021 as the betting favorite to win the Heisman but inconsistency with the offense caused the Oklahoma faithful to make it known that they want the highly-rated backup quarterback to see some action. Sooners fans got their wish when Oklahoma stumbled to a 28-7 deficient in the first quarter against Texas.

After Williams came in, the Sooners went on a second-half run and outscored their rivals 35-10 en route to a 55-48 victory. Williams finished the game with 212 yards passing and two touchdowns. He also added a 66-yard rushing touchdown.

Williams was named the starter after his performance against Texas and he has completely changed this Oklahoma offense. 

In his two career starts, Williams has completed 76.7% of his passes for 473 yards and six touchdowns to only one interception. He has also picked up 136 rushing yards and two more touchdowns on the ground.

It is clear that he is such a special talent and the future in Oklahoma is bright. However, do two quality starts and the game against Texas warrant Heisman praise? Maybe during a slow news week but we have a great slate of college football in Week 9. There is no reason for the hype to be this real. 

Stay Far, Far Away

If Williams is the starter for the remaining four regular-season games and a potential Big 12 championship appearance, he is projected to have 1,826 yards passing and 21 touchdown passes. He would also add 447 yards rushing and eight rushing touchdowns.

Are those really Heisman-worthy numbers to you?

Even if he does go ballistic for the rest of the season, has he done enough to surpass Bryce Young (+160), Matt Corral (+300), or C.J. Stroud (+450)? All three of those guys will have more starts and better stats than him at the end of the season.

I get that his projected full-season numbers are very strong, (2,968 yards and 34 touchdowns) but the Heisman Trophy is not a projection-based award. His projected numbers are not even close to what Corral, Young, or Stroud are projected to finish with.

Stats matter and so do the number of games played. I just do not buy that Williams can steal the Heisman after just seven starts.

There are just not enough games left in the season for Williams to catch up to the favorites. Even if Oklahoma goes undefeated and makes the College Football Playoff, that is not enough, or should it matter, for Williams to win the Heisman Trophy. Much like Rattler coming into this season, Williams will be a heavy favorite to win in 2022. In 2021, though, he is just a rising talent in the game.

If you absolutely must put a future in for this year's Heisman Trophy winner, stay as far away from Williams' Heisman Trophy odds as you can. The +1500 odds are not great enough to justify throwing your money away.

Photo: Getty Images