NCAAF
January 4, 2022

LSU Tigers vs Kansas State Wildcats: 2021 TaxAct Texas Bowl Gambling Guide

Welcome to the last non-championship game of the 2021-2022 college football season. Tonight, the LSU Tigers (6-6) will take on the Kansas State Wildcats (7-5) in the Texas Bowl.

Football season is coming to an end, and although this game could end up getting ugly due to opt-outs from one program, there are still some bets to be made.

As we have all bowl season, we are here to give the best bet of each bowl game. This college football season has been a wild one, and we are just happy to be watching and betting on one last bowl game.

If you decide to gamble, we would love for you to tail our picks. If you do that, we just ask that you do so responsibly. 

How do these teams match up? And who has the edge? Well, let's find out.

WHY Kansas State CAN COVER:

BETTING TRENDS:

  • 3-2-1 ATS in last six games played
  • 6-5-1 ATS this season
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the last six games
  • 8-1 SU in last nine when playing as the favorite 

Kansas State runs the ball almost 10 times more per game than they pass the ball, and they are ranked 110th in rushes per game (32.0). Obviously, they do not dominate time of possession, but running back Deuce Vaughn dominated enough this season to the point that the Wildcats can just lean on him. 

On the season, Vaughn rushed for 1,258 yards and 15 touchdowns on 5.9 yards per carry. Quarterback Skylar Thompson only threw the ball 205 times this season, and Kansas State only threw for 196.2 yards per game, but they are ranked 29th in yards per pass (8.2).

Vaughn is also the second-leading receiver for Kansas State, and he leads the team in receptions (47). Normally, it would make me nervous that Kansas State basically will live and die with one player, however, LSU is going to be without 44 scholarship players, and there is not a single scholarship quarterback available tonight. 

This is where Kansas State will win this game. LSU doesn't have a full-time coach, a scholarship quarterback, practically every good player on their roster, and they will be going up a Kansas State defense that is 19th in scoring and 22nd in points per play.

WHY LSU CAN COVER

BETTING TRENDS

  • 3-2-1 ATS in last six games played
  • 5-6-1 ATS this season
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the last five games
  • 2-4 SU in last six when playing as the underdog

Listen, things are looking up for LSU. With Brian Kelly on the way next season, the recruiting has already picked up, and they are getting some quality players from the transfer portal. 

Tonight, however, is going to be brutal. 

I already mentioned how LSU's quarterback situation is a mess, but LSU will be without corner Dwight McGlothern, safety Cameron Lewis, defensive tackles Glen Logan and Neil Farrell Jr., linebacker Micah Baskerville, leading-rusher Tyrion Davis-Price, and leading receiver Kayshon Boutte. 

This is going to be an absolute nightmare for LSU. This game means nothing for the program. Tonight is all about finding some gems buried in the depth chart, and getting the young guys some playing time. Before all the opt-outs, I was leaning LSU because Kansas State is weak in the defensive secondary, but with no quarterback, and their two best offensive weapons out, it is hard to imagine LSU can drum together enough offense to keep this competitive. 

TEXAS BOWL BEST BET

*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

As I mentioned before, Kansas State relies on Vaughn to carry their offense. With LSU without all of their best players in their front seven, I expect a big day from the Wildcats on the ground. 

The Kansas State offensive line took a step back this season, but even a bad offensive line should push around an undermanned front seven. The uncertainty makes it hard to even think about taking LSU tonight.

LSU was pretty solid against the run this season, but all team stats are thrown out the window for this game. The spread has jumped above a touchdown, but I still like Kansas State to cover.

The under is also worth a play with a rush-heavy offense in Kansas State and an LSU team that might have to run the wildcat all night to be remotely successful moving the ball. 

Pick: Kansas State -7.5 (-102) & Under 47.5 (-106)

Photo: Getty Images