NCAAF
November 19, 2021

Corrigan's Gambling Corner: College Football Week 12 Best Bets

Welcome to Week 12 of the college football season. It has been a tremendous year, and this week is going to be a fun one. With only two more weeks in the regular season, I am going to savor every moment, and so should you.

The board is looking great, and I am here with the five-best bets of the weekend. After my 7-2 day in Week 11, I am feeling pretty good, and I do not see how these picks miss this week. let's enjoy the day, watch some college football, and responsibly place some bets.

Here are our winners for Week 12 of the college football season.

*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Clemson Tigers

Don't look now, but Clemson is playing some good football lately. While the strength of schedule has not been great, they are putting up 34.6 points per game over the last three games, and D.J. Uiagalelei has stopped looking like the worst quarterback in the history of football.

The problem is, Wake Forest is an absolute wagon on offense. Over the last four games, Wake Forest is scoring a whopping 53.7 points, and Sam Hartman has been virtually unstoppable during that span with 387 yards passing per game and 16 total touchdowns. The Demon Deacons have been one of the top offenses in football for the whole season, but they have taken it to another level lately.

Even though the offense cannot do any wrong right now, Clemson's defense is quietly one of the best in the country. The Tigers are seventh in scoring, sixth in yards per play, ninth in yards per rush, and 12th in total yards.

Although Wake Forest's defense is, well, quite awful, they have a massive advantage in this game. Clemson is practically a non-threat on offense, and there might not be a defense that can totally shut down this offense. I do not trust the Clemson offense to keep up, even if their defense shuts the Demon Deacons down.

Pick: Wake Forest +4.5 (-110)

Iowa State Cyclones at Oklahoma Sooners

The spread in this game is low because of Oklahoma's loss last week against Baylor. That is good news for the average bettor, and we are going to take advantage.

Outside of last week's game, the Sooners' offense has looked sharp with Caleb Williams playing quarterback. Since he took over against Texas, Oklahoma is scoring 41.6 points per game, and they are beating teams by a wider margin than they were with Spencer Rattler as the quarterback.

Now, Williams got benched last week for poor play, and Rattler looked serviceable in his short playing time. However, Lincoln Riley already has declared Williams as the starter against Iowa State. The question is, does the Iowa State defense scare you at all? Well, they are 27th in scoring and yards per play, 45th in points per play, and 57th in yards per pass.

Across the board, Iowa State is solid, but not great. One week they knock off a top-10 Oklahoma State team, and then the next week they are losing to West Virginia. I just cannot get a good read on them. Unfortunately for the Cyclones, Oklahoma is 10-0 in their last 10 at home and 7-1 in their last eight home games against Iowa State. Neither team is great ATS this season, so we will go with the talent advantage in this game.

Pick: Oklahoma -3.5 (-110)

Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles

Florida State picked up a big win against Miami last week, but to be honest, both Florida State and Miami absolutely suck. The Seminoles have won nine out of their last 10 against Boston College, but the Eagles are a scrappy bunch this season, and with Phil Jurkovec back as the starting quarterback, they are the better team in this one.

Boston College is a lot better than their 6-4 record tells you, and they have had back-to-back impressive performances against Virginia Tech at home, and Georgia Tech on the road. Those two games just so happen to be Jurkovec's first two games back since his injury. Funny how that works, huh?

I can go on about how much I love this Boston College team, but I will leave everyone with this, The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games, and they are 3-0 ATS in games in which Jurkovec doesn't get hurt this season.

Pick: Boston College -1.5 (-114)

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

I am going to spoil the pick now, we are riding with the under, and here is why.

Yes, Georgia Tech is scoring in bunches lately, but they are 0-4 in their last four, and the best defense they have faced is Virginia Tech, and they only put up 17 points in that game. The Hokies defense is 37th in scoring and 62nd in total yards. Notre Dame is 21st in scoring and 44th in total yards, and the Irish have only allowed 4.5 points per game over their last two.

In the last five matchups between these two teams, the under has hit four times, and with Notre Dame being the much better team, they will control the pace of this game, and keep the score under the total.

Pick: Under 59.5

Cal Bears at Stanford Cardinal

The nice way to put it is that Stanford lacks talent. The mean way to say it is that Stanford is terrible. They are averaging 15 points per game since they upset Oregon, and Stanford is 0-5 in those five games, and they are allowing 450 yards per game while only gaining 276 per game over the last five.

On the other side, Cal suffered a pretty embarrassing loss against Arizona last week, but the Bears have been playing some sharp football lately. Before the loss to Arizona, they beat up on both Colorado and Oregon State, and Cal played Oregon to only a seven-point loss in Eugene.

Now let's get into the trends.

Stanford is 0-5 ATS in their last five, 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games, and their last seven games overall. The Cardinal is also 3-7 ATS this season and has only covered once in their last three games against Cal. The Bears' trends are not very attractive either, but they sure are better than Stanford's. To be honest, a lot of things are better than Stanford.

If Cal were to lose this game, which they won't, that would be the worst two-game losing streak in the history of college football, and I am not joking. Stanford is that awful.

Pick: Cal -1.5 (-110)

Photo: Getty Images