NCAAF
September 23, 2021

Corrigan's Gambling Corner: College Football Week 4 Best Bets

It's been an exciting college football campaign so far. 

Unfortunately, Week 4 doesn't have a marquee matchup outside of perhaps Notre Dame at Wisconsin. But that's OK! Because we're going to put some skin in the game and make this week's slate of games a lot more entertaining. 

Below, we've found six of our favorite bets for the weekend. 

*All lines are courtesy of the FanDuel Sportsbook. 

North Carolina -12.5 at Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech has scored 29 total points against FBS schools this season, while North Carolina has scored 59 points in back-to-back weeks. Simply put, North Carolina and Sam Howell should run away with this one.

The spread is lower than it should be because of Georgia Tech almost taking Clemson to overtime last week, but the books have slightly disrespected North Carolina after the Week 1 loss to Virginia Tech.

The Tar Heels have a clear talent advantage over the Yellow Jackets. It doesn't help that Georgia Tech is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Saturday home games.

Kansas at Duke -16

This is going to be an absolutely deplorable game. Both of these teams are really bad. They're awful against the spread, too. In the Jayhawks' last 13 games, Kansas is 1-10-2 ATS. Duke, on the other hand, is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.

Duke has the 28th-ranked pass offense in the country and they are scoring 34 points per game. They also have the 13th-ranked offense in the country with 528.7 yards per game. Duke's offense should shine against Kansas' poor defense in this one. 

LSU -2.5 at Mississippi State

Under quarterback Max Johnson, LSU is scoring 36.7 points per game and has averaged just under 400 yards per game. Even though Mississippi State has had a very respectful defense this season, the talent advantage swings heavily towards LSU.

Mississippi State had trouble against Memphis and Louisiana Tech, two teams that are not as good as LSU. While the Bulldogs' passing attack ranks eighth in the country, they'll struggle against the Tigers' talented defense. 

UCLA at Stanford: under 58.5

UCLA is coming off a loss to Fresno State while Stanford is still riding high after the big upset over USC. Both teams come into this game with good offenses, but UCLA's running attack led by Michigan transfer Zach Charbonnet has the Bruins ranked 40th in the country with 190 yards per game. Stanford is allowing 210 yards per game on the ground and ranks 81st in yards allowed per play at 5.64.

This is a game where UCLA is going to control the game on the ground and keep the ball away from a hot Stanford offense. Both teams rank towards the bottom in plays run per game, so expect the total to go way under here.

Nebraska at Michigan State -4.5

Nebraska is getting way too much credit here for hanging around with Oklahoma last week. Michigan State has been too sharp this season to take Nebraska in this one. While the Cornhuskers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games and 8-1 ATS in their last nine against the Spartans, Michigan State's offense is ranked 10th in rushing yards (263.67), 29th in total scoring (39.33), and seventh in yards per play (7.76).

Nebraska's defense has been sharp, but Michigan State is the more trustworthy team. 

Georgia State at Auburn -27

It was a tough loss for Auburn against Penn State, but it is one that brings some optimism. The Tigers hung around for the majority of the game and Bo Nix looked solid against a tough defense in an even tougher environment.

Before the loss to Penn State, Auburn was averaging 61 points per game. While those games were against Akron and Alabama State, their opponent this week is just as bad as those teams. Georgia State is the worst-ranked offense in FBS and Auburn is allowing just 12.6 points per game. This one should be a route, and it will probably get ugly pretty early.

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