Corrigan's Gambling Corner: 3 Best NBA Player Props: +627 Parlay Odds - March 31, 2022
Hello, and welcome back to the gambling corner. We are back with our three favorite player props in the NBA tonight.
There are only five games in the Association tonight, but that does not mean the stakes aren't high in every game. The current playoff standings are so tight in both the Eastern and Western conferences that every game matters just a little bit more for the rest of the regular season.
However, we are more concerned with the player props, and let me tell you something, my props have been fire this week. So far, I am 8-1 on my player props this week, and the only prop that did not hit was the one that had the worst odds. But hey, that's just gambling.
Anyway, enough of the boring stuff, let's talk about the three best player props of the night.
We would love you to ride with us tonight, but we would especially love you to make a lot of money. As a sign of courtesy, we have included the parlay odds for all three of our player props. We just ask that you always remember to gamble responsibly.
Here are tonight's plays.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons
James Harden Over 21.5 Points (-112)
Pound for pound, the 76ers are a much better team with Harden on the court, but he has also been very inconsistent since being dealt to Philadelphia. In his 15 games with the 76ers, Harden is averaging 23 points per game on only 42.4% shooting from the field, and 35.4% shooting from deep.
Harden has gone over this number in three of his last four, and 10 times total with the 76ers this season. However, he has not looked good shooting the ball, and he has had some real clunkers offensively. The good news is that the Pistons are not a good defensive team, and the Pistons allow the second-most free throw attempts per game, which plays well for Harden's points prop.
Harden shoots the third-most free throws per game in the NBA, just behind Giannis Antetokounmpo and Harden's teammate, Joel Embiid. Over his last nine games, Harden is averaging 11.1 free throws per game, and he is shooting 88% from the line during that time. He is a good enough shooter that we can rely on him to make a few baskets, and then push this number over at the line.
Even if he does not get fouled often tonight, Harden is a good enough offensive threat for me to feel comfortable with this number.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks
Clint Capela Over 12.5 Total Rebounds (+104)
To start the season, Capela was looking like one of the best rebounders in the league. In his first 36 games this season, Capela was averaging 13.1 rebounds per game, and even 4.2 offensive rebounds per game. Since then, he is only pulling in 10.4 boards per game, and his stats are down across the board.
Capela has started to regain his earlier form, as he has gone over this number in two of his last three, and he is averaging 11.3 rebounds per game over his last nine games. The Hawks are ranked 22nd in total rebounds per game, but they only allow 50.6 rebounds per game, which is the seventh-best mark in the league.
While the Cavs only allow 50.3 rebounds per game, they will be without Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen tonight. The Cavs are going to turn to Kevin Love and Lauri Markkanen to clean the glass, and while they are two solid rebounders, they are not on the same level as Capela.
Getting this number at plus-value is the biggest reason I am taking this prop, but Capela has the matchup advantage against a banged-up Cavs team, and he should easily go over this number tonight.
Milwaukee Bucks at Brooklyn Nets
Jrue Holiday Over 26.5 Points + Assists (-113)
This number feels a little low to me given how good Holiday has been playing down the stretch. He has gone over this number in three-straight games, and over his last 10, Holiday is averaging 19.4 points and 7.4 assists per game. It also helps that Holiday has put up career-highs in shooting percentage (50.5%) and three-point shooting percentage (41.4%) this season.
The Nets are a good team, but they very rarely are at full strength. That will change now that Kyrie Irving is allowed to play home games, but the Nets still struggle on the defensive side of the court. On the season, Brooklyn's defense is ranked 19th in scoring, 11th in assists, and the Nets allow opposing guards to put up 23.5 points and 7.5 assists per game.
Coming off games where they allowed Cade Cunningham and LaMelo Ball to score over 30 points, Brooklyn has to make a decision tonight. Are they going to just hope that Holiday has an off night, or are they going to shift their focus to stopping Antetokounmpo at all costs? If they are smart, they will take their chances with Holiday, and so will I.
3-LEG PARLAY ODDS: (+627) 1 UNIT TO WIN 6.27 UNITS
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