October 29, 2021

Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves, World Series Game 3 Gambling Guide: Best Runline, Run Total, and Prop Bets

After splitting the first two games of the series, the Houston Astros will travel to Atlanta to take on the Braves in Game 3 of the World Series. The Braves now have home-field advantage after taking Game 1 as the next three games will be played in Atlanta. The Astros were able to avoid falling into a similar 2-0 hole as they did in the 2019 World Series against the Washington Nationals after taking Game 2. 

While this has been a fun series so far, there are picks to be made for tonight's game. As we have done for the first two games of the series, we will give you our favorite runline, run total, and prop of the night. If you choose to ride with our picks tonight, we ask that you do so responsibly.

*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Runline Prediction

This is a tough series to handicap because it is going to come down to whether or not the Braves lineup can stay hot. It is very hard to predict when a lineup's hot streak will end and with the Braves, Game 2 was the first time in a while where the Braves felt hopeless. Not only did Max Fried get shelled, but the Braves only collected seven hits, two runs, and Atlanta struck out 12 times.

I do not necessarily think that Atlanta is dead in this series, but it goes to show that if Houston's pitching is on its game, Atlanta does not have a prayer.

Tonight, the Astros will be sending out Luis Garcia (11-8, 3.30 ERA) to get the Game 3 start. Garcia had a tough ALDS against the White Sox and had to leave Game 2 of the ALCS against Boston early due to knee soreness. He then proceeded to throw 5.2 shutout innings in the closing game of the ALCS against Boston.

For the Braves, Ian Anderson (9-5, 3.58 ERA) will take the hill for his fourth start of the postseason. In his previous three starts, he is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 12.0 IP. Anderson allowed just one earned run in the NLCS-clinching Game 6 against the Dodgers.

When picking this game, it is going to come down to the starting pitching. Houston has the advantage tonight with Garcia on the mound, but since this game is in an NL ballpark, Garcia may be pinch-hit for depending on the situation. That should not be a big problem and Dusty Baker will probably have a quick hook since the bullpen got a full day of rest.

With that in mind, and the fact that Houston scores more on the road (5.5) than they do at home (5.3), I am backing the Astros tonight. Both offenses are on equal footing right now and we are riding with the pitching advantage for Houston. 

Pick:  Astros -1.5 (+152) & Astros ML (-102)

Run Total

It is going to be tough to pick the total because of the NL's stupid rule about pitchers hitting.

The total has gone over in the last five Astros road games and 11 out of their last 15 games overall. For Atlanta, the total has gone under in eight out of Atlanta's last 12 games against the Astros and six out of the last eight home games against Houston.

If we are going to use my logic of this game is going to be decided by pitching, the under is the play. The bullpens are rested, both Garcia and Anderson have been solid this postseason, and the Braves have been on a run with the under against Houston.

I do not necessarily love the total tonight but if I had to make a pick, the under is the play.

Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-106)

Best Prop: Michael Brantley To Record 2+ Hits (+150)

Michael Brantley is just so good at the plate. He has multiple hits in four out of the last five games and his slash against righties during the regular season was an outstanding .363/.418/.507.

For his career, Brantley has a slash of .301/.359/.450 with an OPS of .808 against right-handers on the road. Those numbers are just insane. 

So far this World Series, Brantley is slashing .556/.556/.778 with an OPS of 1.333. Brantley only has one game this postseason without a hit and in the Astros 12 games this postseason, Brantley has six multi-hit games. He is just an unbelievable hitter and this postseason, he has been the Astros' most important player at the plate.

We are just playing the odds here. It is starting to become a shock when Brantley doesn't get multiple hits.

Photo: Getty Images