November 2, 2021

Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros, World Series Game 6 Gambling Guide: Best Runline, Run Total, And Prop Bets

The Braves took a 3-1 series lead over the Houston Astros and had a chance to close them out in Atlanta, in front of their home fans. After a first-inning grand slam from Adam Duvall, it seemed like the World Series was coming to Atlanta for the first time since 1995.

Instead, the Astros went on a 9-1 scoring run the rest of the way and have forced this series back to Houston for Game 6. As we have all series long, we will give out the best runline, run total, and prop of the night. This has been a fun series and it may end tonight. Let's end this baseball season on a high note with some can't-lose best bets for Game 6 of the World Series. 

Please remember to gamble responsibly. 

*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Runline Prediction:

The Atlanta Braves should be feeling good about their starter tonight, but there are some concerns. First of all, Max Fried, who will get the Game 6 start, has allowed 11 earned runs over his last two postseason appearances, and secondly, the Astros offense broke through in Game 5.

Now, the Braves have the advantage on the mound in this game with Fried getting the ball to start, but the Astros have one of their best getting the start tonight. The Astros will send out Luis Garcia, who allowed one earned run in 3.2 IP in the Game 3 loss. However, Garcia also allowed four walks and three hits. Garcia had a 2.39 ERA at home this season and only allowed 21 earned runs over 79 IP in Houston. 

This game is going to come down to the starting pitching. Both offenses are locked in right now, and if one starter is on their game, that team will pick up the win tonight. Although Garcia has been sharp at home this season, he has given up five earned runs in 6.2 IP at home this postseason. Fried has the higher upside, so we are taking the Braves to close out the World Series tonight. 

I do not love the value of the runline, but it is the best bet of the night. 

Pick: Braves +1.5 (-172) 

Run Total Prediction: 

This game is going to come down to the starting pitching, but the bullpens could determine the run total tonight. The Braves got only 2.0 IP out of Tucker Davidson in Game 5, and the Astros had to turn to their bullpen after only 2.2 IP from Framber Valdez. 

Although both teams are operating on a day of rest, there are a lot of miles on both bullpens this postseason. With that, both offenses are dialed-in right now, and that plays well for the over. The Braves have gotten good production from the plate out of Travis d'Arnaud, who has two home runs and a slash of .350/.350/.700 with an OPS of 1.050 this World Series.

Outside of d'Arnaud, the Braves have also received a boost from Austin Riley, Eddie Rosario, Freddie Freeman, and Jorge Soler this World Series. The Astros were the best offense in baseball for the regular season, and the playoffs have been no different. Although we are picking the Braves tonight, the Astros are a threat to score or pick up a timely hit at any point in their lineup. 

Both offenses are locked in right now and the pitching broke down last game on both sides. I like both offenses to remain hot tonight, especially in the latter portion of the game. 

Pick: OVER 8.5 (-118)

Best Prop: Freddie Freeman Anytime Home Run (+360)

The props for tonight are not great, so we are going with an anytime home run prop.

Freeman hit his first World Series home run last game and has now recorded a hit in every game this World Series. Now, I can go into a whole thing about Freeman's advanced stats and why tonight of all nights is when he will hit a home run, but I won't do it. 

Freeman will probably win the MVP if the Braves win tonight, and as you read earlier, I think the Braves are going to win tonight. I believe in "team of destiny" in baseball, and the Braves are giving off that vibe in 2021. I like the +360 and with Freeman's power, and with how well he is swinging the bat this postseason. 

Photo: Getty Images