Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros, World Series Game 2 Gambling Guide: Best Runline, Run Total And Prop Bets
Following the Braves' beatdown of the Houston Astros in Game 1, Atlanta is looking to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the 2021 MLB World Series.
The Braves started the first game with a leadoff home run from Jorge Soler and added four more runs before starting pitcher Charlie Morton was pulled from the game due to a fractured fibula that will sideline him the rest of the series. Somehow, Morton was able to unfurl 16 pitches with a broken leg before coming out of the game.
But that's last night, let's focus on Game 2 and the best bets for tonight's tilt. Just like we did for Game 1, we will give out the best runline, run total, and prop of the night.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Astros only got two innings out of Framber Valdez so they will need a big-time performance from José Urquidy tonight. For the season, Urquidy was very solid going 8-3 with a 3.62 ERA in 107 IP. However, his lone-postseason start was a disaster. Urquidy lasted only 1.2 innings in his only appearance this postseason.
In order for the Astros to win tonight, Urquidy needs to put up a quality start. The Astros had to turn to the bullpen which only gave up one earned run in 7.0 IP, but they burned five arms in the mop-up effort and that included a potential spot-starter in Jake Odorizzi tossing 2.1 innings. If Urquidy fails to go deep into this game and the Astros have to rely on their bullpen against a hot Braves lineup, things can go south very quickly.
Atlanta once again has the advantage on the mound to start the game as Max Fried will be getting the Game 2 start. Fried went 14-7 with a 3.04 ERA in 28 starts this season and his postseason numbers are just as solid despite getting shelled in Game 5 of the NLCS against the Dodgers. In his three postseason starts, he has gone 1-1 with a 3.78 ERA in 16.2 IP.
The Braves lineup is sizzling so if Fried is on his game, the Braves should win again tonight. Like the Astros, the Braves had to burn through their bullpen early due to Morton's injury. That could come into play as we reach the later parts of the game, but Atlanta once again has to be feeling good about the pitching matchup.
The Astros lineup hit the ball hard last night and came just shy on slugging a few home runs. Michael Brantley, who is sneakily one of the smoothest hitters of all time, logged three of the Astros' eight hits in Game 1. Key contributors — Yordan Alvarez and Yuli Gurriel — both put up some great at-bats and hit the ball hard. The problem is that Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Alex Bregman combined to go 0-12 in the loss. The Astros are not going to win many games when their core is a liability at the plate.
With both bullpens stretched a little thin, the starting pitching is going to be the difference-maker tonight. Between Fried and Urquidy, one team has a massive advantage, and that is the Atlanta Braves. Their lineup is hot, the pitching — both in the bullpen and in the starting rotation — is better, and the Braves are giving me "team of destiny" vibes, so I will once again be taking the Braves both on the runline and the Moneyline.
Pick: Braves -1.5 (+164) & Braves ML (+102)
Run Total Prediction:
The Astros have now given up five or more runs in 11 out of their past 13 games. With Urquidy being shaky since his shoulder injury in mid-September, we have the perfect recipe for the over.
Atlanta has power all over their lineup and as we learned from the very first at-bat of the World Series, they are a threat to play the long game at any point in this lineup. Atlanta has scored at least five runs in five out of their last eight games and have hit eight home runs over their last four games. Both the Braves and Astros are on a bit of an over-streak as well. The over has hit in eight of the Astros' last 10 games and four out of the last six Braves games have gone over the total.
The bullpens got some work in last night so even if Fried is on his game tonight, both lineups should rake on shaky pens and push this game over the total.
Pick: OVER 8.5 (-124)
Best Prop: Atlanta Braves Team Total: OVER 4 Runs (-130)
Backing the Braves in multiple ways is the smart play tonight. Atlanta smashed Valdez last night and that has become a theme for this lineup lately. Every part of this lineup is clicking and they are putting up some great power numbers.
Urquidy is known as a fly-ball pitcher and the Braves lineup has a 27% line drive rate against right-handed pitching over the past month. Not only is Urquidy struggling to produce ground balls, but he only has a 17% strikeout rate over the past month.
Against a hot lineup that has been barreling up the ball this postseason, the Braves will sneak a few flyballs over the fences and rack up the runs tonight.
Photo: Getty Images