Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Betting Preview

 |  www.lines.com November 23, 2011 with 0 Comments

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The Lions (7-3) are coming off a game where they scored 49 points and QB Matt Stafford and while Detroit has the offense can they stop Aaron Rodgers and a Packers (10-0) team that is simply on fire and has to be the Super Bowl favorite at this point in the season? Stafford has to avoid getting picked off, as in his last 6 games he has 6 INT. On top of that while the Packers’ pass defense only ranks 31st in the league their have the more interceptions. These 2 teams split the 2 games they faced each other last year with each winning on their home field. In their last games the Packers beat the Tampa Bay Bucs 35-26 and the Lions had a great offensive game and beat the Carolina Panthers 49-35. Both teams have been solid betting ones on the season with the Packers at 7- 3 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 7-3 and the Lions are 6-3-1 ATS and have an Over/Under record of 7-3. I mentioned that Stafford has to stay away from getting picked off and if he does he has a chance to have another big game like he did last week. WR Calvin Johnson (59 rec 574 yards 11 TD) and TE Brandon Pettigrew (50 rec 435 yards 3 TD) are his 2 main targets and the Packers especially have to key on Johnson and not let him make the big play down the field. The Packers have a good run defense and while the Lions have been struggling to run the ball with Jahvid Best out RB Kevin Smith came out of nowhere to rush for 140 yards last week. He may have to play a good game again to take some pressure off Stafford. Rodgers is the MVP of the NFL so far and he may have the best WR corps in the league. His 2 big guns are Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson and Nelson is almost averaging 19 yards per catch this season. The Lions have the 5th ranked pass defense and their pass rush is solid led by Kyle Vanden Bosch (6.5 sacks) and Cliff Avril (6 sacks). If the Lions cannot pressure Rodgers he may torch their secondary like he has done many times this season. One question mark for the Packers is with the running game with RB James Starks. I think he will play and no matter who carries the ball will be facing the weakness of the Lions’ defense, as the run D of Detroit ranks 27th in the league. The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10 points, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games, and have an Under record of 11-5 in their last 16 road games. The Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games, and have an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 home games against teams with a winning road record. The Lions looked good last week, but the Packers are on a major roll and they will win this game and cover the spread. .
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