The Lions (7-3) are coming off a game where they scored 49 points
and QB Matt Stafford and while Detroit has the offense can they
stop Aaron Rodgers and a Packers (10-0) team that is simply on fire
and has to be the Super Bowl favorite at this point in the season?
Stafford has to avoid getting picked off, as in his last 6 games he
has 6 INT. On top of that while the Packers’ pass defense only
ranks 31st in the league their have the more interceptions. These 2
teams split the 2 games they faced each other last year with each
winning on their home field. In their last games the Packers beat
the Tampa Bay Bucs 35-26 and the Lions had a great offensive game
and beat the Carolina Panthers 49-35. Both teams have been solid
betting ones on the season with the Packers at 7- 3 ATS and they
have an Over/Under record of 7-3 and the Lions are 6-3-1 ATS and
have an Over/Under record of 7-3. I mentioned that Stafford has to
stay away from getting picked off and if he does he has a chance to
have another big game like he did last week. WR Calvin Johnson (59
rec 574 yards 11 TD) and TE Brandon Pettigrew (50 rec 435 yards 3
TD) are his 2 main targets and the Packers especially have to key
on Johnson and not let him make the big play down the field. The
Packers have a good run defense and while the Lions have been
struggling to run the ball with Jahvid Best out RB Kevin Smith came
out of nowhere to rush for 140 yards last week. He may have to play
a good game again to take some pressure off Stafford. Rodgers is
the MVP of the NFL so far and he may have the best WR corps in the
league. His 2 big guns are Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson and
Nelson is almost averaging 19 yards per catch this season. The
Lions have the 5th ranked pass defense and their pass rush is solid
led by Kyle Vanden Bosch (6.5 sacks) and Cliff Avril (6 sacks). If
the Lions cannot pressure Rodgers he may torch their secondary like
he has done many times this season. One question mark for the
Packers is with the running game with RB James Starks. I think he
will play and no matter who carries the ball will be facing the
weakness of the Lions’ defense, as the run D of Detroit ranks 27th
in the league. The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a
road favorite of 3.5-10 points, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games,
and have an Under record of 11-5 in their last 16 road games. The
Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog, 10-3 ATS in
their last 13 home games, and have an Over record of 5-1 in their
last 6 home games against teams with a winning road record. The
Lions looked good last week, but the Packers are on a major roll
and they will win this game and cover the spread. .
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