Cincinnati (19-8) got over a rocky mid-season Big East stretch and they havegotten back on track and they have won 4 of their last 5 games including theirlast 2. Louisville (21-6) has won 7 of their last 8 games, but they lost to Syracuse2 games back and needed OT to beat a weak DePaul team in their last game.Cincy has a solid defense ranking 46th in the nation in opponents’ points allowedand they have to play good D since they are not a high scoring team. Thisseason the Bearcats are 3-3 against teams ranked in the top 25 and if they canbeat a ranked Louisville team they may punch their ticket to the Big Dance withtheir 20th win on the season.

In their last games Cincinnati was at home and beat Seton Hall 62-57 andLouisville was on the road and beat DePaul 90-82 in OT.

This season Louisville has been a much better team to wager on going 14-9-1 ATS with an Over/Under record of 13-11 and Cincinnati at 9-12 ATS with anOver/Under record of 10-11.

The Bearcats leading scorer is G Sean Kilpatrick (15 ppg 5.1 rpg), but he has notplayed great in his last few games and has to change that tonight. On the otherside of the coin 2nd leading scorer G Dion Dixon (13.6 ppg) has been playingsolid lately and is coming off a 20-point performance in his last game.

One player for Cincy that must play well is F Yancy Gates (12.4 ppg 9.2 rpg), ashe is the leading rebounder and will be facing a Louisville squad that ranks 19th inthe nation in rebounds per game.

Cardinals’ leading scorer Kyle Kuric (13.3 ppg) is coming off a 25-point gameagainst DePaul and G Russ Smith (12 ppg) is the 2nd leading scorer. These guyscan both drain the 3 so the Bearcats will have to play solid perimeter defense.

6’11” Gorgui Dieng (10 ppg 9.2 rpg) and 6’6” Chane Behanan (9.4 ppg 7.8 rpg)give the Cardinals a solid frontcourt and Dieng has a big size advantage in thepaint. Cincy’s 6’9” Gates will need help in this game down low, especially againstDieng.

Cincy is 13-4 at home this season and Louisville is 6-3 on the road.

Louisville is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 roadgames, and they have an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 road games.

Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 homegames, and they have an Under record of 7-2 in their last 9 home games.

Cincy has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games facingLouisville and I think that trend will continue. The Bearcats are playing well andare at home and they will win and cover in this Big East match up.

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